The Phoenix Real Estate Advisor

RISMEDIA, December 23, 2009—Existing home sales rose again in November 2009 as first-time buyers rushed to close sales before the original November 30 deadline for the recently extended and expanded tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing home sales–including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops– rose 7.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million units in November from 6.09 million in October, and are 44.1% higher than the 4.54 million-unit pace in November 2008. Current sales remain at the highest level since February 2007 when they hit 6.55 million.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the rise was expected. “This clearly is a rush of first-time buyers not wanting to miss out on the tax credit, but there are many more potential buyers who can enter the market in the months ahead,” he said. “We expect a temporary sales drop while buying activity ramps up for another surge in the spring when buyers take advantage of the expanded tax credit, which hopefully will take us into a self-sustaining market in the second half of 2010. In all, 4.4 million households are expected to claim the tax credit before it expires and balance should be restored to the housing sector with inventories continuing to decline.”

An NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 51% of homes in November, compared with an upwardly revised 50% of transactions in October.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.88% in November from 4.95% in October; the rate was 6.09% in November 2008. Last month’s mortgage interest rate was the second lowest on record after bottoming at 4.81% in April 2009.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said conditions are optimal for buyers in the current market. “Inventories have steadily declined and are closer to balanced levels, which indicate home prices in many areas are either stabilizing or could soon stabilize and return to normal appreciation patterns,” she said. “This means buyers still have good choices but are purchasing near the bottom of the price cycle with historically low mortgage interest rates. Throw a tax credit on top and it really doesn’t get any better for buyers with secure jobs and long-term ownership plans.”

Total housing inventory at the end of November declined 1.3% to 3.52 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 7.0-month supply in October.

Raw unsold inventory figures are 15.5% below a year ago. The last time there was a lower supply of homes on the market was April 2006 when it was at a 6.1-month supply.

“Nearly all markets experienced a solid sales gain from one year ago,” Yun said. “The only markets with measurably lower sales were in San Diego, Riverside, and Sacramento, where inventory shortages for lower priced homes are limiting sales.”

For the second month in a row, sales have risen in all price classes from a year earlier. Prior to October, the only consistent gains were in the lower price ranges.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $172,600 in November, which is 4.3% below November 2008. Distressed properties, which accounted for 33% of sales in November, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.

Single-family home sales jumped 8.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in November from a level of 5.32 million in October, and are 42.1% above the pace of 4.06 million in November 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $171,900 in November, down 4.4% from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales in November were unchanged from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 in October, but are 60.1% above the 481,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price was $178,000 in November, which is 3.1% below November 2008.

Northeast
Regionally, existing home sales in the Northeast rose 6.6% to an annual level of 1.13 million in November, and are 52.7% higher than November 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $223,400, down 13.1% from a year ago.

Midwest
Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 8.4% in November to a pace of 1.55 million and are 53.5% above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $140,800, a decline of 0.4% from November 2008.

South
In the South, existing-home sales rose 4.8% to an annual level of 2.39 million in November and are 44.8% higher than a year ago. The median price in the South was $151,400, down 1.4% from November 2008.

West
Existing-home sales in the West increased 10.6% to an annual rate of 1.46 million in November and are 28.1% above November 2008. The median price in the West was $231,100, which is 4.1% below a year ago.

For more information, visit www.realtor.org.

Read more: http://rismedia.com/2009-12-22/as-buyers-respond-to-tax-credit-u-s-existing-home-sales-jump-7-4-in-november-2009/#ixzz0aWHwOOPC

In this video I share some of the sales results from the month of November and hopefully give you an idea of how our real estate market is doing. Home sales in the metro Phoenix area continue to be strong and average sale prices have been steady for several months now. Please feel free to contact me at 623.362.3060 or Jay@valleyreadvisor.com if you have questions about specific cities or communities.

As I’ve cautioned in previous posts, it’s to early to all giddy about the sales numbers because we may not be out of the woods yet. It is encouraging to see the number of homes continue to climb during the October-Novermber selling season when we usually see a decline. Watch for my local market report in the upcoming days as we digest what happened in November. Here’s an intresting article about home sales-
RISMEDIA, December 2, 2009—Pending home sales have risen for nine months in a row, a first for the series of the index since its inception in 2001,according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 3.7% to 114.1 from 110.0 in September, and is 31.8% above October 2008 when it was 86.6. The rise from a year ago is the biggest annual increase ever recorded for the index, which is at the highest level since March 2006 when it was 115.2.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home sales are experiencing a pendulum swing. “Keep in mind that housing had been underperforming over most of the past year. Based on the demographics of our growing population, existing-home sales should be in the range of 5.5 million to 6.0 million annually, but we were well below the 5-million mark before the home buyer tax credit stimulus,” he said. “This means the tax credit is helping unleash a pent-up demand from a large pool of financially qualified renters, much more than borrowing sales from the future.

The PHSI in the Northeast surged 19.9% to 100.2 in October and is 44.2% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose 11.6% to 109.6 and is 36.6% higher than October 2008. Pending home sales in the South increased 5.4% to an index of 115.4, which is 31.6% above a year ago. In the West the index fell 11.2% to 127.7 but is 21.9% above October 2008.

Yun cautioned that home sales could dip in the months ahead. “The expanded tax credit has only been available for the past three weeks, but the time between when buyers start looking at homes until they close on a sale can take anywhere from three to five months. Given the lag time, we could see a temporary decline in closed existing-home sales from December 2009 until early spring when we get another surge, but the weak job market remains a major concern and could slow the recovery process.

“Still, as inventories continue to decline and balance is gradually restored between buyers and sellers, we should reach self-sustaining housing conditions and firming home prices in most areas around the middle of 2010. That would mean broad wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families,” Yun said.

Of course for information about your local housing market visit www.ValleyHomePrices.com or contact us directly at 623-362-3060.

RISMEDIA, November 25, 2009—U.S. house prices rose modestly in the third quarter of 2009 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) seasonally adjusted purchase-only house price index (HPI). The HPI, calculated using home sales price information from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-acquired mortgages, was 0.2% higher on a seasonally adjusted basis in the third quarter than in the second quarter of 2009. Over the past year, seasonally adjusted prices fell 3.8% from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009.

FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for September 2009 was unchanged from August. The monthly change for the July-to-August period was revised to -0.5%, from an initial estimate of -0.3%. “These data provide some evidence of short-term stabilization in housing prices, a likely result of the many ongoing efforts to stabilize markets,” said DeMarco. “Given the headwinds facing markets across the country, including high unemployment rates and continued high levels of delinquency and foreclosures, the longer-term view remains uncertain.”

Unlike the FHFA purchase-only index, FHFA’s all-transactions house price index, which includes data from mortgages used for both home purchases and refinancings, fell over the latest quarter. The index declined 2.4% in the latest quarter and 4.1% over the four-quarter period.

For more information, visit www.fhfa.gov

Now what this means to us is we may have finally stabilzed the housing market here in Arizona. Some people still talk about the “hidden” inventory of forclosed homes but we have not seen the evidence of what that means to us.

Months ago I wrote a blog post about “how do you know when we’re hit the bottom” and the point was nobody can absolutley mark this until the prices have increased for several months and of course that means you would missed the bottom.

If you’re thinking about buying a home, you may want to think about making that purchase in the next 6 months or you may end up asking “How did I miss the bottom” and “When am I paying more then I could have”.  For more information about our market feel free to contact me directly and I would be happy to help you understant what all the micro-markets are doing here in Phoenix.

Jay and Lynn Otlewski

623.362.3060

Freddie Mac announced that its Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI) Purchase-Only Series registered a 1.7% quarterly gain (7.0% annualized) during the second quarter 2009 for the U.S., following a downward revised 1.5% drop (–5.9% annualized) in the first quarter. Over the year ending with the second quarter of 2009, U.S. home sales prices fell 6.7% in the CMHPI Purchase-Only Series – less than the 8.5% annual decline recorded between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009.

“The pickup in home price growth rates is consistent with other housing market indicators that show home sales and single-family construction up in the second quarter,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “The lowest mortgage rates in a half-century have pushed housing affordability to the highest level in at least 40 years, helping to encourage buying. The spring is generally the strongest buying season each year, and we normally see home price growth respond similarly – this year was no exception. Moreover, the price gains were broad-based and for the first time in two years average home sales values rose at least a little bit in every region.

“Values are still down relative to their peaks, though. For example, as measured by the CMHPI, average values in the New England, East North Central and Pacific divisions are at 2004 levels, on average. In contrast, the average value in the West South Central area is only slightly below its 2008 peak, while the index for the East South Central region is at about its 2006 level. Other areas have home-purchase values at 2005 levels.”

The CMHPI Purchase-Only Series excludes all refinancings in its calculation. Freddie Mac also produces a CMHPI Classic Series that includes data from both home purchase transactions and mortgage refinancings, with the latter values based on appraisals. Generally, because appraisals are backwards looking through the use of recent comparable property transactions, the Classic Series will typically lag changes in the Purchase-Only series. The CMHPI Classic Series indicated that over the year ending with the second quarter, home values depreciated 4.5% in the U.S. measure, a steeper drop than the 3.9% decline over the year ending in the first quarter of 2009.

The CMHPI Purchase-Only Series had the following regional house-price changes:

Pacific Division (AK, CA, HI, OR, WA): jumped up 3.2% (13.4 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 15.7%, and during the last five years, home values have decreased 5.1%.

West North Central Division (IA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD): increased 2.3% (9.7, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 2.4%; over the last five years, home values increased 6.1%.

East North Central Division (IL, IN, MI, OH, WI): rose 2.0% (8.4%, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 3.9%, and during the last five years, home values decreased 1.3%.

West South Central Division (AR, LA, OK, TX): grew 1.6% (6.5%, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 0.3%, and during the last five years, home values increased 21.2%.

East South Central Division (AL, KY, MS, TN): increased 1.6% (6.5%, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 2.9%, and during the last five years, home values increased 17.0%.

South Atlantic Division (DC, DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV): rose 1.4% (5.9%, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 7.9%, and during the last five years, home values increased 10.6 percent.

Mountain Division (AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY): grew 0.7% (2.9%, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. In the last 12 months, home values decreased 11.0%; during the last five years, home values increased 12.0 percent.

Middle Atlantic Division (NJ, NY, PA): increased 0.6% (2.6%, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 3.7%, and during the last five years, home values increased 18.0%.

New England Division (CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT): increased 0.5% (1.9%, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 3.2%, and during the last five years, home values increased 2.2%.

Unlike other home price indexes based on mean or median values of homes sold during a given period, the Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index is constructed, using regression techniques, from observations of actual sales prices or appraised values of the same homes over time.

For more information, visit www.freddiemac.com or you can contact me at 623.271.4234 and I would be happy to talk to you about specific communities.