The Phoenix Real Estate Advisor

Freddie Mac announced that its Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI) Purchase-Only Series registered a 1.7% quarterly gain (7.0% annualized) during the second quarter 2009 for the U.S., following a downward revised 1.5% drop (–5.9% annualized) in the first quarter. Over the year ending with the second quarter of 2009, U.S. home sales prices fell 6.7% in the CMHPI Purchase-Only Series – less than the 8.5% annual decline recorded between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009.

“The pickup in home price growth rates is consistent with other housing market indicators that show home sales and single-family construction up in the second quarter,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “The lowest mortgage rates in a half-century have pushed housing affordability to the highest level in at least 40 years, helping to encourage buying. The spring is generally the strongest buying season each year, and we normally see home price growth respond similarly – this year was no exception. Moreover, the price gains were broad-based and for the first time in two years average home sales values rose at least a little bit in every region.

“Values are still down relative to their peaks, though. For example, as measured by the CMHPI, average values in the New England, East North Central and Pacific divisions are at 2004 levels, on average. In contrast, the average value in the West South Central area is only slightly below its 2008 peak, while the index for the East South Central region is at about its 2006 level. Other areas have home-purchase values at 2005 levels.”

The CMHPI Purchase-Only Series excludes all refinancings in its calculation. Freddie Mac also produces a CMHPI Classic Series that includes data from both home purchase transactions and mortgage refinancings, with the latter values based on appraisals. Generally, because appraisals are backwards looking through the use of recent comparable property transactions, the Classic Series will typically lag changes in the Purchase-Only series. The CMHPI Classic Series indicated that over the year ending with the second quarter, home values depreciated 4.5% in the U.S. measure, a steeper drop than the 3.9% decline over the year ending in the first quarter of 2009.

The CMHPI Purchase-Only Series had the following regional house-price changes:

Pacific Division (AK, CA, HI, OR, WA): jumped up 3.2% (13.4 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 15.7%, and during the last five years, home values have decreased 5.1%.

West North Central Division (IA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD): increased 2.3% (9.7, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 2.4%; over the last five years, home values increased 6.1%.

East North Central Division (IL, IN, MI, OH, WI): rose 2.0% (8.4%, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 3.9%, and during the last five years, home values decreased 1.3%.

West South Central Division (AR, LA, OK, TX): grew 1.6% (6.5%, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 0.3%, and during the last five years, home values increased 21.2%.

East South Central Division (AL, KY, MS, TN): increased 1.6% (6.5%, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 2.9%, and during the last five years, home values increased 17.0%.

South Atlantic Division (DC, DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV): rose 1.4% (5.9%, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 7.9%, and during the last five years, home values increased 10.6 percent.

Mountain Division (AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY): grew 0.7% (2.9%, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. In the last 12 months, home values decreased 11.0%; during the last five years, home values increased 12.0 percent.

Middle Atlantic Division (NJ, NY, PA): increased 0.6% (2.6%, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 3.7%, and during the last five years, home values increased 18.0%.

New England Division (CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT): increased 0.5% (1.9%, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 3.2%, and during the last five years, home values increased 2.2%.

Unlike other home price indexes based on mean or median values of homes sold during a given period, the Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index is constructed, using regression techniques, from observations of actual sales prices or appraised values of the same homes over time.

For more information, visit www.freddiemac.com or you can contact me at 623.271.4234 and I would be happy to talk to you about specific communities.

Here’s the latest news from my connections at Sun City Festival! Through most of the spring and summer the incentives have been this high so it looks like they’re gearin up for the winter sales.
Incredible incentives at SUN CITY FESTIVAL by Del Webb

 
Completed Inventory Homes  - $35,000 to $90,000 off 
New Build Incentives
 
Holiday Series Homes (1100 - 1398 s.f)  -$15,000
Cottage Series Homes (1373 - 1494 s.f)  -$35,000
Classic Series Homes (1612 - 1816 s.f)  -$45,000
Premier Series Homes (1960 - 2323 s.f)  -$70,000
Estate Series Homes   (2450 - 2849 s.f)  -$90,000

 
Vacation Villa’s available for $39.00 per night (4 or 5 night stays). Plan a visit while the market is low!!!
New phases opening this weekend.

If you’ve thought about visiting this community now would be the time to do so. By coming in the summer or early fall you beat the crouds and the selection will never be better.
For more information about Sun City Festival (or any active adult community in AZ) visit www.Retiring2Az.com or call me direct at 623-271-4234.

There’s been a lot of conversations on blogs about the real estate market and exactly where we’re at and if we’re coming out of it. Sales of exsiting homes have jumped considerably  over the last coupld of months and now this report from MarketWatch.

RISMEDIA, July 20, 2009-(MarketWatch)-New construction of U.S. houses expanded for the second straight month in June after hitting a record low in April, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.

Starts rose 3.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted 582,000 annualized units stronger than the 531,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. This is the highest level of starts since last November.

Starts of new single-family homes rose by 14.4% to 470,000 in June, while starts of large apartment units fell 29.4% to 101,000. Building permits, a leading indicator of housing construction, rose 8.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 563,000. This is the highest level of permits since December.

Could we really be coming out of the real estate slump? Some say yes while others tell us to consider the number of “bank owned” homes that are still being help by the bank waiting to be released. In Maricopa county alone there is over 50,000 homes that have not been placed on the market and some day will become available.

I found this interesting article in Fortune magazine that agrees with what I have been saying to my clients. The active adult communities have not taken as big a hit as the traditional communties and have already started to see increases. Here’s a part of the article-

According to the latest MLS data, Sun City, while definitely hurting, is a lot better off than its neighbors. The median sales price in April for a single-family dwelling in surrounding Maricopa County (Arizona’s populous region that includes Phoenix, Mesa, and Scottsdale) was $125,000, down from $230,000 a year ago. That’s 46% in 12 months. Ouch. In Sun City during the same period, home prices fell just 24%. What’s killing Maricopa County is foreclosures. Even as home sales rise, cheap, bank-owned properties are flooding the market: 1,042 in April alone, plus 8,396 new pre-foreclosures, where the borrower has stopped paying and the eviction process is underway. Foreclosures during the same month in Sun City? Six, representing an infinitesimal one-hundredth of 1% of Sun City’s single-family homes. Fewer foreclosures equals greater stability.

It’s a pattern that seems to play out nationally. While there’s been little research on how retirement markets have fared specifically, experts say that the same profile - minimal foreclosures, less severe price drops - is true of retirement communities across the country. Says Bill Ness, founder of the retirement website 55places.com: “It is a common understanding among most agents that real estate values have held up better in active adult communities than in other non-age-restricted communities.”

There could be a simple explanation for this: Old people aren’t as stupid and greedy as young people are. Or maybe they’re just not as stupid and greedy as they were when they themselves were younger. “By the time you’re retired,” says Phil Andrews, 85, a Vietnam vet and 10-year resident of Sun City West, “you’ve got a little bit of sense about buying a house. You’re not going to buy one you can’t pay for.”

If you would like to read the rest of the article you can click this link and it will take you to the Fortuen website.

Of course for more information about real estate in Arizona you can contact me direct at 623.271.4234 or visit www.Retiring2Az.com for all you active adult questions.

Jay Otlewski

RE/MAX Integrity

Here’s your May 2009 Phoenix Arizona market update that will help you better understand where this market is at and where it’s going. Have you wondered how many homes have sold? How about how many were banked owned homes?

Here’s a quick look at what the Phoenix Arizona market did for the month of May.

Sales were even higher in May than April and June is setting up to be another banner month. Please watch the video and let me know if you have any questions or comments.

Of course when you’re ready to buy a home in the Phoenix Arizona area please consider me. I would be happy to spend a few minutesd with you in person or on the phone to evaluate if we’re a good match.

I can be reached at 623.271.4234 or email me at Jay@valleyREadvisor.com.

PS. Remember you always have ValleyREadvisor.com and Retiring2Az.com for all your real estate needs!