The Phoenix Real Estate Advisor

Some of the hot economic news we talked about last week has hit and … its interesting. 

-          Housing starts were down 4.5% and building permits were down 12%

-          CPI (measure of inflation) posted the largest decline in the 51 year history of the BLS

-          Average weekly earnings rose 1.4%

I am going to take a glass is half full stance on these numbers.  Obviously the lower inflation number is a big plus (we must see what the Fed does with rates to see where this will go), and the hike in earnings is positive.  The negative housing stats while “negative”, are helping to ease inventory or what inventory would be which is one of our core issues right now.  Low mortgage rates and a decreasing inventory will certainly not hurt our cause.

Mortgage rates are doing their best to break away from the 200-day moving average.  The problem is, they haven’t made up their mind what direction to go.  Mortgage Bonds (mortgage rates) have traded sideways and remained relatively unchanged for 11 straight days now.  That is something we haven’t seen in 2 years.  So, I am not complaining about this nice break from the volatility we have become accustomed to, but I am eagerly awaiting a break for the better.

We will be sure to keep you posted!  Please let me know if you have any questions!

Jay Otlewski, RE/MAX Integrity, 623.362.3060, Jay@valleyREadvisor.com

Here’s a collection of the questions I most often receive from people about Sun CIty Festival. If you have others please don’t hesitate to call me at 623.362.3060.

Ask me about how you can stay at the villas for FREE!

Q: How many Inventory homes do they have?

A: Approximatley 93 finished homes.

Q: What are the average prices of these inventory homes now, with the reductions?

• 1372 sq ft - 1494 sq ft ….. $160’s to the $190’s
• 1610 sq ft - 1816 sq ft ….. $200’s to the $220’s
• 1960 sq ft - 2323 sq ft ….. $230’s to the $250’s
• 2528 sq ft - 2849 sq ft ….. $350’s to the $450’s

Q: What is included in youe inventory homes?

• All appliances including stainless refigerator
• GE washer and dryer
• 2″ wood window blinds
• Extended tile floors
• Surround sound pre-wire
• Maple or Cherry cabinets
• Granite Countertops

Q: How much will I pay to stay in a vaction villa to experience the lifestyle?

A: $69 per nigh through Jan 15th and $79 per night from Jan 16th till April 30th

Q: What do I get with my villa stay?

• 2 bedroom home plus den
• Fully furnished w/ big screen TV
• $25 gift certificate to Indigo grill (1st time guests)
• Drink tickets to happy hour
• Golf cart in garage to use while here
• Access to recreation center and pools, golf and indigo Grill and Restaurant

Q: What are the fees at Copper Canyon Course?

• $45 residents fee (all golf includes cart and range balls)
• $2,000 flex pass (50 rounds @$40 per round)
• Unlimited golf ($3,000 one person) and ($5,000 for two)

Q: Why Sun City Fesitval over all other active adult communities?

• Voted best active adult recreation center nationwide by teh National Builders Association
• Only $95/mo HOA dues which includes Cox basic cable
• All homes include granite, SS appliances, 18 by 18 tile, pull-out shelves, energy efficient low-E windows, post-tension foundations and newer homes therefore newer technology.

Q: How many homes will there be in Sun City Festival at build-out?

A: 7,200 homes with 3 recreation centers and 2 golf courses when complete.

Q: What’s new in ‘09 at Sun City Festival?

A: 5 new model homes currently under construction

Q: Can the residents at the neighborhood across the street (Foothills) use the facilities on teh active adult side?
A: NO_ The recreation centers and pools are exclusive to the active adult side and connot be shared, although the golf course and restaurant are open to the public.

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Thankfully we’ve put this years election behind us and we can move forward. Whether you supported Obama or McCain you have to hope that the new president will do the right things and bring us back to the economic super power that we’ve been in the past.

Two things I’d like to comment on-

1- I want to thank Arizona for passing proposal 100, the amendment that permanently stops the state and local government from ever adding a transfer (sales) tax on real estate. I think the best part of this is the state now has to be “Honest” when it goes after more money from us and do it the old fashioned way. Like taxing payroll taxes so I clearly know how much I’m paying instead of hiding it in a transfer tax on real estate, etc.

2- As most people that know me understand I do not believe in the Democratic Parties idea of how to run the government. Larger government, more spending and “taxing wealth” instead of “creating wealth” never seems to work. With that being said, I am hopeful that President Obama will bring everyone together and get the country’s economy going again. Now will he?

Once he’s Washington and is surrounded by Democratic Lifers that have been waiting for this for years, will they be inclusive? Will they tolerate other opinions? Will will they do what the Republicans did back when they have this kind of power and thumb their noses at the other side of the isle?

Bottom line is this country has a new president and I hope everyone (like him or not) will get behind him and pray that he makes the right decisions. One thing McCain said last night that stuck with me is “I’m ready to serve my commander and chief”. If he can live his life this way shouldn’t we all?

Election day is turning out to be a great day for both bonds (MBS up 90 bps currently) and stocks (DIJA up 202 currently).  Mortgage rates are possibly at the beginning of the rally we talked about last week.  So far rates have improved by .25% today on 30 yr fixed with no stopping in sight.  I will be sure to keep you posted as the higher rates may have been keeping the “on the fencers” on the wrong side of the fence. 

I would invite you to also listen to my recent audio podcast about the market conditions in the Phoenix, Arizona area. It also digs into the northwest valley market conditions.

Click here to listen to the podcast!